I build things with AI, and I write about what it's doing to work, money and minds.

Signs to watch · the ones for your view are marked

Seen one of these? Tick it and watch your roads move.

Nothing ticked yet. Each tick moves 4 points of your odds toward that sign’s road.

• Would point to Compression
• AI can finish, on its own, a task that takes a person a full working week.
• Young workers in the most exposed jobs fall a quarter or more behind those in less-exposed jobs. The gap was 19% in August 2026.
• A licensing body changes who may enter a profession, and names AI as a reason.
• Would point to The Wall
• Progress slows: the length of task AI can finish on its own takes more than a year to double.
• The four biggest data-centre spenders cut their capital spending two quarters running.
• A frontier lab stops training frontier models, or is sold or merged.
• Would point to Concentration
• Open-weight models fall more than a year behind the best closed ones.
• A government completes a deal for a stake or a board seat in a frontier lab.
• The US, China or the EU takes the power to reserve or direct private frontier compute.
• Would point to The Loop
• Deployed agents are found coordinating through a channel their operators didn't know about.
• AI systems acting without human direction cause serious harm outside a test: a death, losses over $100 million, or a big service down for a day.

When each sign counts, and who decides: the rules in the third essay.